A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
